OK, do not want to rain on every-one’s parade here but don’t fall for the Rosy News out there on the Housing Market. Those books are being cooked by various chefs. I am going out on a limb here and saying we have about 2+ years before we see a real recovery and if the Goobers in DC keep on doing the stupid stuff they have been it could be longer than that.
We have not even seen the real crash of the Commercial markets yet.
Retail is going to continue to get hit as more people shop Online and as people continue to save more and spend less. With a normal economy this would be fine but once we went over 50% of the Economy being consumer spending, that was it and when it became in the Government’s interest to have everyone keep spending.
With the real center of finance having shifted from Wall Street to Washington, you have amateur hour at its worse and I just don’t see anyone there growing a brain, gaining common sense, or putting the peoples true interests ahead of their own grabs for power happening anytime soon.
Especially since the Community Reinvestment Act that started the mess in the first place was started by them.
So, I am still digging gold and silver…. think I am up over 14% from the last time I mentioned them and Oil as predicted by yours truly is up over 40%. Still got to love the commodities.
Reals Estate is going to stink until 2012 at least with the exception of Farm Land. It is the only Real Estate where income will rise as commodity prices once again start going up. If we start seeing inflation that way I think it going to happen with commodities, this should be a doozey.
So, and I know I am starting to sound like a broken record here, go short on any of the big RE holding companies or just by Puts. Short or long-term will do it. If you have any suggestions, send them my way and I will post them.
The Cap and Trade Bill or which is really a tax on all energy if passed is going to have huge consequences for the American Economy. While proponents of it say this is about clean energy and the environment, it is actually just a tax on all energy and will have a large impact on every aspect of the Economy.
Perhaps a far more accurate name for it that I have come up with is “The American Way Of Life Tax” which is exactly what it is as it is going to impact every single thing that we Americans hold near and dear.
Now that they have classified CO2 or carbon dioxide that you breathe out with every breath and what plants need in order to grow as a pollutant, regardless that this has no credible scientific basis they are going to be able to tax it.
In all likelihood depending who’s estimates you use, if passed as is, it could end up costing every American Family from about $250 per to $400+ per month and possibly much, much more by many estimates. It also has the potential of truly throwing off the economy.
What it will do is make coal fired power plants nearly twice as expensive to run, which means that electricity prices may double. It is also going to affect even farmers who have to use tractors, and shipping companies that use trucks, and airlines too.
You could see a $4 per package jump in your next FedEx package for instance. Mail prices may see a 50% increase.
There are far more wide ranging ramifications as well and just Google it to get more info but this post is about the plays.
The way that I see to make money from this will be to sell the coal producing power plant companies short or buy puts on them. I will try and get some specific plays for you to consider.
But the bottom line unlike any other bill ever passed, this has the ability to shake the economy to its core and no portion of it will not be able to escape the increase in prices that this Taxation will produce.
This one Bill really has the power to send us into the deepest recession we have seen since the depression. Just think about anything that needs energy to be produced and those are the companies that this bill is going to hit and hit hard. Plus everyone that lives and breathes in the US is going to have to pay more for everything.
What is the Silver Lining in this economy? Why Silver itself. It is up 25% this year and common sense would say that it probably will rise a lot further. Why? Well because unless I am mistaken, when you decide to turn on the money printing presses like the US has and increase money supply by 100% in the past 100 days, i.e. the dollar should technically worth only half of what it was 3 months ago, then Silver will probably go up.
By September of this year, they are looking at a money supply that is up to 3 times what it was.
With China dumping as many of its US Dollars as possible into hard assets in South America like oil fields, metal mines etc., they see the dollar is going to continued to be devalued and do not want to be holding the bag.
I am not even going to go into the why the US is doing this or talk about fiat currency and the dangers of it, but the bottom line is get ready to play the dollar short across the board. Just buy anything that has real value (not inflated) and you should be good to go. Inflation won’t be too far behind it. If you want to do some homework, go back and see what happened after Jimmy Carter go in and you will have a virtual playbook for what is about to happen. The exception being that I think that you have a multiplying effect here that was not present back then. Look for a falling dollar and inflation.
Just play things smart and you can make quite a bit of money. And as to stocks… well, “Sell In May And Stay Away Until September” I think is how the old saying goes. I like that old saying…..
My thoughts are this is a Bear market rally and the Bear is getting hungry again. There are some good short plays coming up and I am going to be looking in the banking sector. The Comercial Paper crunch is coming and I think the Credit Card crunch is not far behind.
Will throw out some specifics and I won’t even comment on what is going on in Detroit. Whatever it is, it is not Capitalism.
Like last year, I would be ready to go to cash in May….
Well, so far I am batting about 980 which is fine and dandy but people will forgive your for being wrong far easier than for being right. While of course you should never listen to a word I say and the rantings and ravings of a mad man here should never be taken seriously and of course there is no guarantee that you will make any money following such rants.. blah blah blah….
Being right does not always get you where you want to go… and I have other endeavors to attend to. What do I think is going to happen? Well any idiot out there can see what is coming down the pike. Pretty high inflation, rapid devaluation of the dollar, and several false dawns that fools will use to predict that everything is sunshince and kittens when in fact that exact opposite is true.
But there is little money in pointing out the obvious. The fools won’t listen and the smart people already know. LOL But we are in for some rough times here folks.
So, it may be awhile before I post anything here then again or not…. But here again, I would stay out of the market unless you are in and out or playing the overall game short. I still like gold and silver even more and select small businesses the best.
Have fun playing out there kids….but remember they are playing with razor blades these days and you see the blood before you feel the pain. Although everyone that saw their 401k turn into a 101k can attest to that. If you don’t think it can’t go any lower, you may be in for a shock. I truly hope I am wrong on this one….but……
Then again, there will still be companies that make money but most of them will not be listed on the stock exchanges… Just remember to use your noodle… Hail Caesar and all of that.. Be careful kids…. We will come through this but it may take awhile…
While there is a ton of money to be made in plays using options and other instruments in the market these days, I am turning my focus back to my favorite investment vehicle which as you know if you have been a regular reader, the small business men and women of the world and Entrepreneurs. There is a difference, the main one being there are a lot of great Entrepreneurs who are not good business people and vice versa. More on the later, but it basically is akin to there being more than one flavor of Pie, or Ice Cream. I am going to lump them together for now and parse them later.
So, unless there is something that just leaps out at me in my musings, I am going to concentrate on tips and techniques for investing in them, which in my very own humble opinion is the best and least risky investment out there.
Plus, I will show you how to do this even if you do not have any money! ZERO, Nada, zilch, 0, and it is quite possible.
You would have to be nuts to put money into Wall Street these days and feed what has become Pigs, my apologies go out to the real pigs with four legs.
So check back in and I will be putting up my opinions on these things. And remember, do you own due diligence, always get the advice of a competent professional, (good luck finding one) and do your home work. And please, take responsibility for your own investments. No whining, or bitching, and moaning about your portfolio. I guarantee you are smart enough to learn how to make these decisions for yourself. Spend 4 hours a week learning about investments and you will probably know more than your broker or adviser. Ok, well maybe not, but you get the idea. Do not become a victim, there are no rich victims out there. But, there is a ton of opportunity for sure. So get of your duff and find it.
I will also be posting information on some of the areas that we see as coming in under the radar so that you can get a head start.
This is a post from one of the smartest guys that I know, John Walker. You may have never heard of him but if you have heard of Auto-Cad, he is the guy that invented it. He sold out quite awhile ago and moved to Switzerland and now follows his bliss.
Anyway, this is a post from his blog that I happened to come across that I found interesting to say the least and I thought that you might like it as well. The link to his blog is at the bottom. It is worth stopping by on a regular basis. I hope he won’t mind me promoting his site.
WARNING - THIS IS SCARY!
Gnome-o-gram: Tipping Point
A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury.
What is the tipping point at which the voters can be deemed to have made the disastrous discovery cited above, and a democratic polity begins its unrecoverable spiral into a state in which a dependent majority loots a shrinking productive minority, with the ultimately tragic consequences demonstrated with such dismaying frequency in history? Well, let’s look at the following graph of the situation in the United States.
This chart shows the percentage of all individual income tax returns with no tax liability due from 1980 through the present, extrapolated to 2009 according to the announced McCain and Obama tax plans (which, by this measure, have almost identical effects, although they differ in many details). While for most of this period, only about one in four or five filers owed no Federal income tax, this figure jumped to one in three after the Bush tax cuts of 2001 and 2003, and appears to be poised to soar to slightly less than half under either an Obama or McCain administration.I would define the crucial figure on this chart as the 50% level, and the U.S. appears to be on the verge of reaching it. Beyond that point, there is an absolute majority (albeit measured in tax filers, which doesn’t translate directly into numbers of voters) who pay no Federal income tax whatsoever, some of whom receive Federal money in the form of refundable tax credits (which both candidates have pledged to expand), and hence view any government expenditures which benefit them as without direct cost: they’re paid for by the minority who actually pays taxes. This creates an incentive system dangerously tilted toward ever-expanding government benefits to the majority and an increasingly confiscatory regime for the dwindling and demoralized minority of actual taxpayers. Politicians who advocate tax cuts or broadening the tax base automatically restrict themselves to appealing to a minority, and that’s something even politicians are rarely dumb enough to do.Now, before everybody writes to point out that those who pay no income tax still pay other taxes, let me note that I’m perfectly aware of this. Employed taxpayers with no income tax liability still pay Social Security taxes (part of which is “paid” by their employers, which simply reduces their paychecks by an equivalent amount), and although there is at present no Federal sales tax in the United States, individuals ultimately pay the corporate income tax in the form of higher prices for goods and services passed on by firms subject to this tax. But since these taxes are (in the first case) not perceived as funding general government spending programs (even though, in fact, they do, but let’s not get into that here) and (in the second case) hidden in the cost of goods and services, voters do not immediately connect them with their personal share of the cost of government.
Note that the chart above understates the constituency for government programs funded by those who actually pay taxes. Measuring just those tax filers with no tax liability excludes “net tax eaters” who have some tax liability but whose income from government payments of various kinds exceeds their tax liability. But even excluding people in this category, it’s clear that the U.S. is on a course to come perilously close to tipping point where a majority of the electorate pays no federal income tax. How do you recover from that situation and its inevitable consequences? You don’t, in a democracy.
Holy Smokes Batman! The Congress and the Senate have out done themselves. This bill is 10 times larger than any previous bill and 5 times larger than the ill fated spending spree the lengthened the Great Depression by a decade. Apparently not only do the Politicians not read History, they flunked Economics too.
I still say liquidate your Stock holdings and go to cash until this thing shakes out. Will have some specific plays for you shortly but not yet. Even little bits of this bill has the power to wipe out whole industries and for sure individual companies if their competition gets a favor from their Congressman or Senator and they don’t. Without any hyperbole, this bill could put us on the brink of Socialism and it is not just me making this observation.
What gives me great hope though is that 85% of Americans now think this thing is a bad idea.
Found an interesting map of the election. This is a county by county break down of the election. It proves what I already knew, that the coasts think differently and have a different set of values than the vast majority of Mid-America. Just food for thought.
This can be useful in investing, and marketing.
Now to set the record straight on some stupidity that I have been hearing.
1. This is not the worst economy we have seen by far. We had a 6.4% Annualized plunge in GDP in the first quarter of 1982.
2) Last year we actually had a growth of GDP of about 1.8%
3) When Reagan took the reigns in the 80’s from the mess Carter handed him, the highest tax rate was 70% and when he left it was 28%. That is what got us out of the mess without run away inflation. The private sector became revitalized and pulled us out. It was not through Government spending, higher taxes and pork barrel voodoo economics. It is as plain as day for anyone that cares to look. Remember the lesson from last year. Higher taxes always mean lower Government Revenue and it usually means a power grab. See
Thomas Jefferson once stated during the formation of the U.S. Government: “We might hope to see the finances of the Union as clear and intelligible as a merchant’s books, so that every member of the Union, should be able to comprehend them to investigate abuses, and consequently to control them.”
We have never spent our way out of a recession and what is on the table, as far as the current bailout will not do it it either. In fact, as it stands it will make the Recession a lot worse.
This is a fact, not conjecture. Ask an economist that is not on drugs or does not have an agenda to push you will get agreement on this.
Now our task is to figure out which parts of the economy are the new programs going to hurt the most and sell those short and find out which areas they might actually help or at least not hurt as much.
While we can’t go over all them, there are a couple that really stand out. First off, what just happened concerning the new CAFE standard or EPA standards for vehicles is going to pretty much finish off Detroit. Don’t remember who said it but what they just did is like giving CPR to someone while strangling them at the same time.
Just Google CAFE standards and read about what they just did. So, go short on everything Detroit and follow up on any of their suppliers. They are going to get creamed if this goes through and it is pretty much a done deal.
Now I have not had time to research this, but I just heard that the foriegn Auto makers have an out for this, so that may not have to comply. If that is that case, I would bet on Honda and Toyata. While it does not make sense, it could be true.
Now what is going to do well under the New, New Deal? That remains to be seen as to what actually comes out but look for Banks that have been mismanaged and play them long but watch them like a hawk. Although this goes against common sense. Welecome to the times we live in. The bailout money is still flowing but no one, but no one knows what is being done with the money.
But some of the easy ones are Macky D’s as in McDonald’s and other low price food outlets should continue to do well. A lot of people are going to be broke and stay that way for quite sometime. So look for low priced outlets. I still like Wal-Mart btw.
Depending on much money is taken out of the private sector by this bill, we could see the Recession last a full 4 years as I have stated before, so hunker down for the long term and keep your cash handy and I still like gold and silver.
The only thing that gets us out of a Recession by the way is Tax Cuts and Wars or both. Don’t see any Tax cuts coming down the pike and not sure about a War.
The good news it that the chaos that is about to ensue will bring opportunity for us. If you want to get some extra credit, go look at what happened with Jimmy Carter and FDR when they tried to do this. This could be a lot, lot worse. So hence the opportunity will be a lot higher and broader.
There is Money to be had…
Interesting Factoid…. Are you aware that the US has the highest tax rate on Business of any Industrialized Nation? Pretty Cool huh?
For those of you that have read this blog for awhile, you will know that I pull information from Anthony Watts great science blog from time to time and have been doing so for a while now because well, it is a great science blog about the Climate that actually treats it like a science and not some popularity contest.
It is one of the few websites out there that has not bought into the Global Warming Hysteria but just shows the facts which as investors you need to be aware of for sure as they do affect our investments. Before you invest in any of the “Green” investments, I suggest you give it a gander for sure.
This winter and it’s record cold temperatures are going to put what I feel is another well deserved nail in the Coffin of the Global Warming Hysteria and I am waiting for them to try and explain yet another year of global cooling. We will have to see. I am sure they will come up with something.
But anyway, back to my original reason for writing this post.
Well, it is now official “Watts Up With That” has won the best Science Blog for 2008. Congratulations Anthony and keep up the great work.
If you have not been there, here you go! Take a look around and everytime you hear something about global warming, go check out the real data at his site.
I have decided upon some requests for more specifics that over the course of the coming weeks that I am going to give you a primer for investing in small private companies and learn how to blow away our minimum 21% return.
But perhaps more importantly, I am going to show you how not so lose any more money and to keep what you have!
In that in the next several years I think that we are going to be entering a fairly deep deflationary period and recession and we will see yields on bonds and such hover around 2% and the stock market is going to be a pretty scary place to be, I thought that I would show you how to invest in my all time favorite investment and that is basically smart, ambitious, hard working entrepreneurs.
If the market really thought that the bailouts were going to work, they would have skyrocketed on the news and point in fact, they have mostly gone down.
In that right now about 90% of all new job creation in the US is done by small companies and the government is not only ignoring them, but it is making life more difficult for them, they are currently and for the foreseeable future in dire need of capital.
This huge vacuum is your opportunity!
If the Feds were suddenly able to use some of the 1.5 trillion (or is it 2 trillion?) they are talking about handing out to buy a clue, they would give half to Warren Buffet to invest and actually make money with and the other half to small businesses in the US and you would see the economy turn around and take off in less than 6 months. That and lower the corporate tax rate to 10% and they would have more money to waste and spend irresponsibly than they ever thought possible. And no I am not considering that political commentary. Just a dream that I have.
OK, back to reality and back on point here.
I am going to put this course into videos here shortly but I am on the road at the moment in Sunny San Diego and this will do just fine for now.
So you have figured out that you are tired of getting creamed on Wall Street and you want to take control of your your own financial future. First off, congratulations!
The other thing I want to drill home is that if you are reading this, you can do this and win the game.
You are smart enough, and have the ability to blow away what nearly any financial adviser can do for you.
Step 1.
The first thing you need to do is to figure out how much money you want to invest? Did you listen to me last Spring and liquidate your portfolios and go to cash? If so you probably have a lot more money than those that did not.
Now the great thing is that you can do this with 401k and Roth account money. In fact, if you are going to do it with Retirement funds, I would do it now, rather than later. There are some rumblings about nationalizing Retirement accounts that I did not put much weight in when I first heard them, but, now I am not so certain. For more information on how to do this with your retirement accounts, look at my post on Equity Trust.
Step 2.
The next thing you are going to do is either online or on your computer or on a piece of paper, write down the number you have to invest and stick with it.
Depending on how large it is, you probably want to invest no more than half into any one entity or business or perhaps no more than 10%.
I am going to show you how to set up a dashboard that shows you exactly how things are going with your investment.
I will also show you some of the tools from Anderson’s Arsenal that will make this a breeze and allow you check and see how things are doing from a computer no matter where you are.
Step 3.
The next thing is to figure out what you know about. This may be your current or past job, your hobbies or something that you know something about or at least have an interest in.
What products do you see yourself, your friends, and your family buying in the coming years? Write all of them done and do not filter them by thinking such things as the is too silly and whatnot. Just make your list.
Then I want you to take a look around you and figure out which of the things that you have knowledge of, or are interested in, look like they are going to do well in a tight, tight, economy from your list.
People have to eat, they will still drink, they will still want some forms of entertainment, and they will want a better life for their children are some of the obvious things to take into consideration.
What else are people going to be wanting and buying? There is no right answer here by the way. You need to feel comfortable with the area you pick is the only correct answer and remember common sense will go a long way here.
Step 4.
Once you have a general idea, then I want you go Google it and and spend at least 10 to 20 hours researching it. You need to do this from multiple sources to get a proper perspective. Find out what is going on in the market. Find out who are some of the big players. And while I would like at the first page or two’s listings, dive into page 17 or so and skip some of the higher ranked pages. Sometimes all the higher ranked pages have going for them is that they know Search Engine Marketing or SEO and do not particularly have any real expertise in the subject matter at hand.
I am going to insert one Rule that I would not waver from. Put twice as much time in doing research as you do watching TV. If you don’t watch TV them good for you, you are ahead of the game. I might also suggest that if you do watch TV you quit watching the news. It will give you a false sense of doom and gloom if you watch the Bobble Heads too much.
So now you have found the area you are interested in and done your preliminary research to make sure you know the market.
The other thing that I have to warn you about though is that if you do decide to do this, you could end up having an enormous amount of fun here and you may forgo ever putting money into the regular stock market ever again.There is one other little part of the lesson that I would like you to do and it may seem silly at first but, it is important, and it actually has some scientific underpinnings.
Step 5.
I am borrowing this term from T.Harv Eker because it works and a bit of something from NLP or neuro-linguistic programming. Now before you ask ‘why is Anderson having me do this’ and you say it is silly, I ask you this. Are you making over 21% right now and if so do you want to learn how to make more? Then secondly ask yourself what do you have to lose? Besides you are by yourself and now one will be looking.
So here goes, I want you to think of a time when you have done really well with an investment and you made money. If you have not done that before think about when you found money or someone gave your money. Maybe it was the tooth fairy or for your birthday or even when you got your first paycheck. Think about how good it felt. Let that feeling run through you for 30 seconds or so and remember how it put a smile on your face and whatever other feelings were associated with the event. OK, while you are thinking of that I want you to touch your pointy finger to your thumb and press it while you are remembering how good getting the money felt and say to yourself “I am a money magnet”.
Now that was not so hard was it? Now repeat this exercise right now 4 or 5 times. Think about how good you felt when you got the money, have your finger touch your thumb, and repeat “I am a money magnet“.
The point of this every time you find money, even if it is penny, or a quarter, or you make a good investment or even get your paycheck, I want you to do this exercise. The great part about it is that soon or maybe even now if you have done it several times, try just touching your finger to your thumb and you will find that it brings back that good feeling when you got money. Try it, kind of cool isn’t it!
I will discuss that psychological reasons for doing this and why it is so important in Part 2.
Remember, you are a money magnet.
OK, quick recap here.
Figure out how much money you have to invest.
Write down the number.
Figure out where your interests and skill levels lie and choose the area you want to invest in.
Do at least 10-20 hours of research in the area you chose and figure out the market and the players.
Remember that you can do this and that you are money magnet and do your exercise whenever you get money.
Now looking back at what I have put up there so far does this make sense? Are you able to follow along so far? It was not that tough now was it? Well good!
It really is this easy.
In lesson #2 I will show you how to find the type of company you want to invest in and the mechanisms that I use to grade them and how to use my dashboard and what software I use to manage your investment.
In the meantime, do the steps above and get ready to take control of your financial well being and get ready to have fun.
I’m the NOAA co-op observer for Coal Creek Canyon, Colorado, elevation 8950 feet, in the foothills NW of Denver. Here is a graph of average temperatures for the past ten years. 2008 is by far the coldest year in the past decade, with an average of 39F.
That’s full 3 degrees F colder than 2003. Each of the past five years is colder than any of the previous five years. This is only one station of the thousands in the NOAA co-op network, but I thought I’d show you the data before it’s adjusted and homogenized by the usual suspects.
Here’s a photo of the station in January 2007, in the midst of a record round of snow storms in Colorado.
For any of you that ever had any doubt about what is coming at you from a million different angles as far as tax hikes, here is just one little example.
This is from house bill (SCHIP), HR2 which is the first version of socialized health care, that you are paying for which originally was supposed to be for children but now includes illegal aliens and most people up to the aga of 25 living at home.
The cigarette tax rate goes from $.39 per pack to $1.00 per pack; A256.41% increase!
The tax on snuff goes from $.585 per pound to $1.50 per pound; A 256.41% increase!
The tax on pipe tobacco goes from $1.0969 per pound to $2.8126 per pound; This is a 256.41% Increase! (not a coincidence you think?)
The tax on RYO (cigar tobacco) goes from $1.0969 per pound to $24.62 per pound (not a typo). This is a 2,244.50 % increase!
Now remember the Revolutionary war was basically touched off by a 5% increase in the tea tax which is why we now drink coffee. Let me put this another way, our forefathers realized the importance of not allowing this to happen and they were willing to die and to start a war over it and that is how we became the US of A. Now I am not saying that you should go do any such thing, but it is food for thought about the importance our forefathers put on “No Taxation Without Representation” even though it is your representatives that are doing this. Hmmmm….
So no matter what you hear about politicians lowering taxes, you will know otherwise. My prediction is that you will see this repeated thousands of times over the coming 4 years.
The really bad part about it, is that it will probably put over 100,000 people out of work in legitimate industries in the US alone. While it is Politically correct to pick on smokers even though our new President smokes 3 packs a day (what you did not know that? The press was nice enough not to print pictures of him smoking though for the kiddies and all).
Believe it or not, there has not been one study linking the smoking of cigars or untreated tobacco to the same amount of health risks as to the treated tobacco used in cigarettes which is rather ironic.
Actually, the studies of cigar smokers actually has them having about half the problems of cigarette smokers which was rather a bit embarrassing. Probably because you don’t normally chain smoke smoke a cigars or pipes and there are no chemicals infused in the tobacco.
Prediction:
Whatever the case may be as I have noted time and time again here, when you raise taxes you always decrease revenue eventually and this one flat out is going to put over 100,000 of people out of work.
The kicker is that this is going to happen time and time again and it is going to bleed the economy dry with paper cuts and even those will eventually do the trick. What this basically does is put more and more power into the politicians hands.
The Play:
So, if you have any tobacco stocks, go short or by puts.
Now, the other big tobacco companies overseas stand to gain here if you want to go long and buy stock or options.
Although, these puppies (tobacco companies) have been holding their own in spite of the fact that politicians continually go in and blackmail them and shake them down for billions at a time, they still keep chugging along. While the tobacco companies thought that by agreeing to pay them billions starting back in the Bill Clinton era, what they did not realize is that once the politicians got that money from them, like all good blackmailers, they keep coming back for more money. Honestly, if tobacco is really so bad for people, and they are really worried about the poor children and it killing them, then why not just outlaw it?
If it was any other chemical or product that did what they say it does, it would have been banned years ago. Think about it, supposedly Cigarettes kill 440,000 people each year.
Can you imagine if Detroit manufactured a car that did that? How long would it be on the market? About 2 seconds.
I am just pointing out the Hypocrisy here and but then again there is billions of dollars still to be plundered.
If people want to smoke, go for it. It is still kind of a free, well OK, not so much any more, a free country.
Anyway, go buy some puts and sell short and make hay while the Taxes are rising! There are going to be lots of opportunities like this in the coming years.
Also I want you to know, you are all smart people here and as hard as it is sometimes and will be, probably as hard as it is to give up smoking for some people, I am going to stop with the political commentary. Anyone with half a brain can figure out what is what and who is doing it. I am just going to point out the laws and the new taxes that are going to be involved or the industries they are going to hurt, which is what they do as when is the last time any law was ever passed that actually helped companies? Stumped you didn’t I… LOL All I am going to do from now on is point them out and then point out how to make money from them. That is it….
There are plenty of places to go to get political commentary and there is going to be a lot of it I have a feeling. Basically what is happening is that capitalism as we know it is under attack. Make no bones about it and it is going to create chaos of proportions that have not been seen since the 1930’s. It is going to hurt a lot of people sure, but just like in the 30’s, for those in the know there has not been such an opportunity to become wealthy since then unless it was in the 80’s under Ronald Regan but for totally different reasons.
So strap yourself in and get ready to ride the unprecedented wave of government regulation, intervention, and taxation the likes of which unless you were alive in the 30’s have never seen before. Even so, I believe that it will surpass what happened even then. If you don’t chicken out and you use your noodle, there are millions to be made.
This is an older interview with Gene Simmons whom if you have been a reader here, I have a lot of respect for as a Capitalist. This might help you understand why I like him so much…. Are you aware that Kiss has more licensed products than any other band ever? They have over 3,000 licensed products and counting.
Here is a must read story by Thomas Sowell who is one of my favorite economists. I also think he is one of the smartest ones out there that is still alive. Click Here to read it.
If you want a a no-nonsense account of what could and should happen with the new regime that is coming into power, then this is a gem.
If you have not read his stuff before and you like really smart writers that know what they are talking about, (well hey you are hear aren’t you? LOL ) then Thomas Sowell is your man.
Making Money today with everyone going crazy is actually probably easier than it has been at any other time for a lot of reasons. One everyone is running around like a chicken with their head cut off for one thing. When the Sheople are saying the sky is falling, it is a sure sign that things are starting to firm up a bit.
Business wise, do a double check on what is going on with the economy. I actually see the first stage signs of a possible turn around coming.
We will have to see. But this may be bad news for all of the doom and gloomers out there which includes the vast majority of politicians, the old ones and especially the new ones.
The truth of the matter is if the politicians would get out of the way and quit messing with things and actually stop hindering small businesses every time you turn around, then we would be humming right along. But as it is now, government intervention, regulation, and intervention is what caused the current economic down turn. If there is one glaring culprit in the matter it is when the the Feds forced banks to lend to people that could not afford it in order to help the poor.
If you don’t know, The CRA or Community Reinvestment Act which was passed during the Clinton years forced banks to lend to low income people i.e. people that could not afford to pay back loans.
I also call it affectionately the Community Retarded Act. The feel good liberals basically told the banks that if you don’t loan to your Alcoholic Uncle Fred who can’t hold a job, and does not know how to balance a check book, and that is going to stiff you eventually and under normal circumstances you would you never loan him a dollar, let alone enough money to buy a house, we are going to penalize you and cut off your money from the Federal Reserve.
This was repeated hundreds of thousands of times. Now no one in their right mind who has a family and has to pay their own bills would ever loan money to someone like that, but the Politicians did and they actually did it with your money and now everyone acts surprised and points fingers at everyone but themselves.
Now, they are talking about even more regulations..Arghh… with taxes on everything from Coal, (still pushing the whole global warming fiasco) to non-diet soda pop to the tune of 18%! I kid you not.
Now the kicker is that if the economy which does look like it is beginning to recover before they kick in there new economic pork barrel bailout, then that is bad news for them, so they have to do their best to talk it down. But with oil now below $40 a barrel, things do look like we are starting to turn the corner.
This is good for us, but bad the the politicians. Go figure… LOL
Here are some interesting statistics from Tom Blumer about this and why the politicians do not want a really good economy yet, even though I must warn you it is a bit biased. Still it does make some interesting observations along this line, so don’t throw the baby out with the bath water.
Holy Moly Batman! What are we going to do? It appears the trend for global temperatures are still dropping! Does this mean we have to worry about another iceage coming as some truly respected and real climatologist have suspected? Well maybe not but the Annual Temperatures have been in a drastic steep decline ever since Uncle Al’s Global Warming Comedy film came out.
What you may not know most of the countries have backed off the Global Warming Bandwagon and in Australia, Uncle Al is pretty much laughing stock down there but, the big question is the new administration going to ignore the all of the new data that is coming in putting new nails in the whole Global Warming fiasco or are they still going to piss away billions of dollars of your money on a hoax ? Guess we will find out shortly.
Ok, now this may not look like much but the drop around the end of 2006 or the start of 2007 where it peaked for this decade is more than what the Kyoto Treats was supposed to drop temperatures in 50 years. Good thing Bill Clinton did not sign the darned thing when he had the chance and spend a trillion dollars to get that done as Mother Nature just did it for us for free.
The kicker is that when it is all said and done, it really does look like we could end up being quite a bit colder in 20 years. The rest of the data will be in shortly and it looks like we could drop about half a degree again this year too. Brrr or that is Cool as in the stupidity can now stop? Lets hope so.
Ok, I am going to give you one of the best resources to cut through all of the hype out there about economic conditions. It does may not seem like much at the surface but this is about as good of data as you can get at any price. I have never run into anyone else that uses this like I do and not you will have it for yourself.
Here you go and do not feel bad about using it as you have already paid for it.
It is called Regional Economic Conditions (RECON).
If you start using this info, you won’t get caught with your pants down again and you wont have to bother with most of the news either.
This data is updated 8 times a year. Now mind you there is one or two flaws that I want to point out. The whole foreclosure and ownership numbers can off. This is because as I alluded to in a previous post, a lot of real estate transactions take place in trusts these days so they do not show up and they do not use Agents and there are a ton of owner financed and Rent-to-Own transactions going on under the radar. I would guestimate that up to 20% are being done this way. But still, this is good info and you are getting it pretty much unfiltered.
They actually have a pretty good tutorial as well. Hats off to the people that put it together. Good Job!
This table shows which economic concepts are available at which geographical levels (state, MSA, or county). Listing is alphabetical by concept. Available geographies are checked in red. Data is updated quarterly, except as noted.
US
State
MSA
County
Bankruptcy Filings, Personal; charts, table, maps (charts for each state and county; 1 table + 2 maps per state)
In a story that I did back on January 17th. 2oo8 on Gene Simmons, Kodak, and the Apprentice I looked at what appeared to be a tell-tale using my psychic abilities about Kodak Execs and their lack of critical thinking and decision making abilities.
Once again, I appear to hit to have hit the nail on the head in a couple of different areas. One that Kodak was likely to go a lot lower …. Try from $18.14 down to $6.41 and that I think Gene Simmons is a freakin Genius, I really do.
How is it that for a fall? Now of course there were a lot of mitigating circumstances but seeing how the execs at Kodak reacted to what Gene Simmons threw at them, really did tell a lot about their lack of ability for critical thinking. You think lack of Marketing skills may have something to with their dismal showing… Duhhhh..
This is apparent inability is apparent in a lot of companies that I am looking at right now Perhaps we should hire Gene Simmons to go out and pitch marketing ideas and if the company does not buy them, then sell the stock short or better yet buy a boat load of puts. We could have done a several hundred % return on Kodak
So Mr. Simmons if you happen to read this, drop me a line and I will show you how we can make a couple of extra milion in the next few months.
I will post some other great companies to look at for selling short or buying puts on soon…. There are some doozeys!
OK, do not want to rain on every-one’s parade here but don’t fall for the Rosy News out there on the Housing Market. Those books are being cooked by various chefs. I am going out on a limb here and saying we have about 2+ years before we see a real recovery and if the Goobers in DC keep on doing the stupid stuff they have been it could be longer than that.
The Cap and Trade Bill or which is really a tax on all energy if passed is going to have huge consequences for the American Economy. While proponents of it say this is about clean energy and the environment, it is actually just a tax on all energy and will have a large impact on every aspect of the Economy.
While there is a ton of money to be made in plays using options and other instruments in the market these days, I am turning my focus back to my favorite investment vehicle which as you know if you have been a regular reader, the small business men and women of the world and Entrepreneurs. There is a difference, the main one being there are a lot of great Entrepreneurs who are not good business people and vice versa. More on the later, but it basically is akin to there being more than one flavor of Pie, or Ice Cream. I am going to lump them together for now and parse them later.
I have decided upon some requests for more specifics that over the course of the coming weeks that I am going to give you a primer for investing in small private companies and learn how to blow away our minimum 21% return.
For any of you that ever had any doubt about what is coming at you from a million different angles as far as tax hikes, here is just one little example.
Here is a must read story by Thomas Sowell who is one of my favorite economists. I also think he is one of the smartest ones out there that is still alive. 
Making Money today with everyone going crazy is actually probably easier than it has been at any other time for a lot of reasons. One everyone is running around like a chicken with their head cut off for one thing. When the Sheople are saying the sky is falling, it is a sure sign that things are starting to firm up a bit.
Ok, I am going to give you one of the best resources to cut through all of the hype out there about economic conditions. It does may not seem like much at the surface but this is about as good of data as you can get at any price. I have never run into anyone else that uses this like I do and not you will have it for yourself.
In a story that I did back on January 17th. 2oo8 on 
